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Sunday, April 19, 2020

USA will hit 1M coronavirus covid-19 positive case sooner then earlier projection, more then 50,000 lives will be lost on April 23rd

The rate of death is unfortunately rising rapidly even though WH coronavirus task force briefing is saying taking victory lap daily by saying we have reached the peak. According my model, USA is currently on a pace of 1 M positive cases by April 27th which is 1 day earlier then original projection of April 28th. Also, the number of lives lost will be 50,000 on April 23rd, 5 days ahead of original projection of April 28th. Its not that I wish the death projection to be right. The mortality rate is just higher. If you underestimate this virus, its more deadly then one can imagine. 
Unfortunately because the mortality rate is rising daily, currently at 5.28% of positive cases, by August 1st, its rising to 268,703 vs original projection of 220,520



The liberate movement in Virginia, Minnesota, and Michigan will only harm more people. This virus doesnt sees boundaries or restriction. Inspite of stay home order average positive case is rising by 29,000 to 30,000+ daily and more family is losing their love one's. The idea of lifting restriction in some part of country is as stupid as thinking virus wont spread by putting ban on flight from China and allowing people without testing them just because they are American. If virus can travel from China to USA, then it can spread at even faster rate to all the counties that have no or less cases. 

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