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Thursday, August 2, 2012

Fed, ECB, BOE - disappointed stock market but the number tells different story

It could be the weirdest day for trading as BOE, and ECB joined Fed in disappointing the stock market. The biggest disappointment came from ECB's Draghi, who promised to do everything to preserve Euro but did nothing except give hope like the other two central bankers. Stock market was truly disappointed. But if we look back at the numbers, market has ignored central bankers completely. Dow closing down 92 point, and S&P500 down 10 point is normal after rallying 600 point in 1 week.
Dow took off from 12,530 to 13,130 which is 600 point rally and gave away 252 point from the peak but its still up 348 point since the hopium rally began on July 24th.
During the same period, S&P500 gained 62 points and gave away 27 point, but its still up 35 point.
Euro also rallied from 1.20400 to 1.23400 and now its back to 1.21700
Gld also rallied from 152 to 158 and now its back to 154.13
Spain 10 year yield is back to 7.16 (above Danger level)
Italy 10 year yield is back to 6.33 (above Danger level)

VIX was biggest disappointment it was down 7.3% to 17.57 after rallying to 20.25 and down 15% from today's peak. One would have expected VIX to rally but it was opposite, it sold off with the market. After all market is not disappointed with FED, ECB, or BOE action.

dow
Dow Jones momentum was upward at the close in a bullish zone but it is expected to open lower.
A 40 point rally in  future  could change things quickly. 
S&P500 chart
Lots of rumor expected tomorrow that ECB will do something over weekend.
Based on the chart, Dow and S&P500 are expected to open lower but lots of rumor expected to be out from ECB secret source which may drive this market higher anytime. For bullish sentiment to continue, dow needs to break 12,908 and S&P500 needs to break 1372. For bearish sentiment to continue, dow needs to break 12,816 and S&P500 needs to break 1358.

I find this crazy and insane, but when ECB Draghi was giving conference market was selling off. Mid way during the day, media comes up with an article that ECB is working on something and market recovers on that rumor. If ECB really had a plan they would have told in the during conference.

Anyways, my suggestion would be still stay away from this crazy manipulated market and don't lose your hard earned money and don't keep any money overnight in any stock.
Non farm payroll of 100k would mean no easing between 50k -80k means easing rally and 80k -100k is neutral.

After hour percentage gainer and loser:

Percentage Gainers
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
Blue NileNILE47,457$29.005.2522.11$30.68$23.74
OpenTableOPEN271,47039.004.8514.2041.1234.14
MercadoLibreMELI186,70575.498.9713.4876.2066.26
MasTecMTZ33,49017.501.52 9.5117.7515.77
SkullcandySKUL61,87514.881.03 7.4415.3113.85
LinkedIn Cl ALNKD1,402,668100.356.84 7.31102.0093.00
SequenomSQNM54,5482.920.19 6.962.922.73
Percentage Decliners
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
Body CentralBODY29,924$7.94-1.65-17.21 $9.59$7.46
Exide TechnologiesXIDE37,2872.40-0.48-16.67 2.882.40
ZipcarZIP33,7878.88-1.75-16.46 10.638.00
Knight Capital Group Cl AKCG6,372,2142.22-0.36-13.95 2.621.85
comScoreSCOR6,50413.74-1.71-11.07 15.4712.60
Toll BrothersTOL40,28426.07-3.03-10.40 29.1426.07
MolycorpMCP560,19714.40-1.67-10.39 16.3913.56
iShares S&P Short Term National AMT-Free Municipal Bond FundSUB6,66796.09-10.43-9.79 96.0996.09

Economic Calendar:
TIME (ET)REPORTPERIODACTUALFORECASTPREVIOUS
8:30 amNonfarm payrollsJuly100,00080,000
8:30 amUnemployment rateJuly8.2%8.2%
10 amISM nonmanufacturingJuly52.0%52.1%