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Friday, August 3, 2012

Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, and VIX; Weekly Outlook (Aug 6th - 10th)

As said in my previous article, this market wasn't disappointed because ECB, Fed, and BOE did not print money for the stock market. They know central bankers have to ease as the global economy is slowing down. But after triple disappointment, one would have expected stock market to sell off and CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to rise but as we know, stock market goes in opposite direction of what majority thinks and so stock market rallied and VIX sold off. But as we have seen all this year, for every 1 point sell off market has rallied back 2.5 point and that's what happened today.

Lets analyse where is Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq and VIX heading next week.

Dow jones since 1972
Since 1972 Dow jones is up 12144 (1275 %) and since Oct 3rd, 2011, its up 2182 (20%)
Is this market heading for crash ?:
S&P500 crash
S&P500 has rallied 104% from March low of 2009. After major rally, S&P500 has given up more then 40% of its gain.
1400-1516 is unsafe zone for investing.
With Fed and ECB, right now it seems the stock market cannot crash but don't get fooled they were present when all the crashes happened in the past. Right now market is safe because the shorts in Euro is at all time high, though its down 35% in two month. But, 1400- 1516 is range when one should sit on the sideline with cash and wait till market has hit bottom. Because risking money at 1400 could potentially give a return of 5% in 1 year but the potential of losing is very high. But consolidating and saving money and investing at the right time could give a return of 30-40%. Keep SPY, DIA, SDS, SH, SDOW in your watchlist and have a long term and short term investing plan.

Weekly Outlook of S&P500:
Greece is expected to run out of cash this week so market should decline unless ECB steps in again to save Greece from default. The upper target for this week is S&P500 is 1395 and low target is 1365.
S&P500 is expected to stay between 1365 - 1395 range in this week.


Dow Jones Industrial Average:


Dow is expected to be in the range of 13,117 and 12816 range this week.


Dow is heading for crash
Dow Jones expected to be in the range of 13,117 and 12816 range.

Nasdaq: 
Nasdaq is expected to be in the range of 2976 - 2912
nasdaq_crash
Nasdaq crash zone still intact. 

CBOE Volatility Index VIX: 
VIX is expected to rise but it won't rally till 21.89 is broken.
VIX is still in contango but its expected to rise little but don't expect big  rally till  21.89 is broken.