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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

US dollar index at 1 year high at 81.80. Long term investor becareful

Overnight Fitch downgraded Japan by two notch from AA to A+ which is the third largest economy of the world but this market didn't sell off on the news. Later former Greece PM announced that Greece is preparing to exit Euro and so we saw sell off pressure through out the day. Even though ECB printed money but this market didn't rally throughout the day.

Based on the chart, Dow and S&P500 are expected to open lower at the open as its in bearish zone, but rest of the day trend depends on the rumor out of ECB informal dinner date. Rest of the economic data doesn't matters its about ECB, Fed, Greece and Spain. It is consolidation week for S&P500 and Dow so its likely to stay between 1282- 1335 range.

For Upside Dow needs to break 12570, while for downside Dow needs to break 12477 followed by 12422

For upside S&P500 needs to break 1318 followed by 1328, while for downside S&P500 needs to break 1312, followed by 1308.

MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET 

New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET - 335k is expected, prev month 328k; higher is bullish, lower is bearish.

FHFA House Price Index 10:00 AM ET 0.3% is expected, higher is bullish sign, lower is bearish

EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET Built up in inventory is bearish news, while decline in inventory is good news.

Earnings before market open:  AINV, AEO, BIG, CAE, FDO, GCO, PTNR, STP, TOL, TSL, ZLC, EV

Earning after market close:  BRS, NKBP, HPQ, NTAP, P, PVH, SMTC, VLNC, PRXI

After hours big gainerPETM, GLUU, TTWO, CALL, MCP, WLT, GES, KWK

After hours big loser:  PCX, ADI, HPQ, RBS, BLK, VTSS, WTSLA

For Long Term: Keep PCX, NOK, RVBD, AAPL, PCLN, POT, MT, F, MOS, CAT, FAS, ERX in your watchlist.

For day trading watchout BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, MA, V, FAS, FAZ, TZA, TNA, TVIX, XIV, SVXY, UVXY, VXX, SPY, DIA, GLD, AGQ, INFY (remember volatility is not a long term investment option use it for strictly day trading) VIX is in Contango again after masssive sell off June future contract, so any bad news could lead to rally but it will go low at the close. So be careful with UVXY, TVIX, VXX. 

Once again US dollar index is above 81.80, so its not safe for investment for long term investor.

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