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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Stock Market Analysis for March 9th: Expect a down day on Greece default news

industrial production
The media is just hyping too much about the participation rate in Greece swap program. Same media won't even talk about the drop in participation rate in US which is bringing the unemployment rate down to 8.3% 

The bond holder have to forcefully take 75% loss of their original investment. If Greece doesn't payout complete amount it is considered as Defaulted in any language but not so in main stream media. So far after 200 point drop this market is liking the participation rate in Greece swap program and the result will be out tomorrow morning. This market is expected to drop on the news or atleast end up flat at the close. There is no room left for Dow to go upside. It has new resistance at 12900, so if it breaks then the next stop is 12777 and for S&P500 new resistance is at 1363, if it breaks then next stop is 1344.

Euro is also expected to drop so buying EUO or shorting/buying puts in FXE should be profitable trade. Watch out overbought stocks like CAT, DE, IBM, CVX, CRM, AAPL, SPY, DIA puts or short it. 

Non farm payroll of 204k is expected, higher will be bullish sign, and lower will be bearish sign, the data will be out at 8.30 EST.

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change243,000 204,000 180,000  to 275,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level8.3 %8.3 %8.1 % to 8.5 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.4 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change257,000 220,000 195,000  to 285,000 

International trade data at 8.30 EST is expected -48.4B, higher will be bearish sign, lower will be bullish sign.

Keep your cash in hand and don't jump in bull stock at this level because if the market drops it will be hard to recover your money.

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