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Thursday, January 19, 2012

Dow likely to fall 1200 -1500 point : TVIX, TZA, FAZ, ERY

Dow today's chart:
If you look as soon as dow fell below blue line or rose above blue line, the stock made a comeback into envelope. Once again very thin volume 93 million. Right now stock is flat, but close to reaching upper blue line.
Dow today's chart
If you look today Dow crossed the lower blue line and it went outside envelope, so dow crawled back into envelope.  If it breaks upper blue line or lower blue line the stock tries to come back into envelope. Right now Dow is sitting near the upper blue line, which suggest stock is going to fall in 1 week time.
Dow 1 week chart - same way dow is near upper blue line

Dow 1 month chart - almost above blue line.  

Dow 3 month chart - shows it's overbought

Dow 6 month chart - its overbought

Dow 1 year chart - Dow is overbought
Dow Rsi 66.67

Dow 5 year chart -  it has still little room but very close to upper danger zone. Look at the volume its nothing compared to last 5 year

Based on the chart, the room for upside is very small. Everytime the stock is overbought or oversold, stocks fall big time atleast by 10 -15% , Dow likely to fall atleast 1200-1500 point. Right now ECB fine tuning operation is saving US market. But if you remember QE1 started on Nov 20, 2008, yet stock hit alltime low by March 2009 and it fell below 7k. Time to buy TVIX, TZA, FAZ

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