2012 a turbulent year for Global Stock Market: VXX, TVIX

Wall Street riding on a false hope get ready for a crash.

If you think you have seen it all in 2011, then get ready for even bigger roller coaster ride of stock market in 2012 till first quarter of 2013. Volatility is likely to remain high throughout 2012 and mostly above 20 in most part of the year. 2011 was a year of failed promises from Politician across the continents right from US debt debate, to US Job bill or so called Super Committee. Even EFSF was set up for above 1 trillion dollar but the fund didn't even cross 500 Billion euro. Eur/Usd is right now below 1.30 and Italian bond yield above 7. Both are in the danger zone, suggest how much work is done in Europe to save Euro.

US stock market was up in last two week because of the positive data from US market, " Yet, many traders are expecting QE3". If the economy is so good then why the trader are expecting QE3 ?

US to hit 15.194 trillion debt ceiling soon: TVIX, TZA, ERY, FAZ, VXX

US debt ceiling of 15.194 trillion dollar hitting in 2 days

I posted China emerging as new problem on Dec 1st. Since then, Shanghai composite has lost over 7% till now. I am surprised that US & Europe stock market have completely ignored the downfall of China even though, its the second largest economy. Today, China PMI came out at 48.7 showing further sign of deterioration. The market is currently focusing only on Europe at this moment.

Will Greece default ? Euro Crisis Important dates to remember: TVIX, VXX, FAZ, AGQ

Euro to hit 1.27

Till now stock was rallying up on false hope and all of a sudden today, the stock market realized that Europe crisis isn't over. Dow broke the key resistance of 12285, and S&P 500 broke the key resistance of 1265. Now the next level to watch in Dow is 12103, followed by 12000, while in S&P key level is 1244, followed by 1229 for the downside.

Tomorrow Greece needs to make payment of 5.23 Billion. Can it make it or will it default ? Also, Italian 3 and 10 year auction is very critical at 2 am EST.  If  3 year goes well, 10 year will be weak and vice versa. Italian 10 year bond yield is at 7, which is already at danger level.

Five year comparison of US GDP and Dow Industrial Jones, and S&P500: TVIX, VXX

Today Dow Industrial Jones closed at 12291 and S&P 500 at 1265.43 inspite of weak Dallas Mfg. data. In order for dow to fall, it needs to break 12285 level for lower side, and 12381 for upside. For S&P500, the lower level resistance is 1265, while upper resistance is at 1275.

In this article I'll compare the chart of US GDP, Dow Jones Industrial and S&P500 of past 5 year.

US GDP from 2007 - 2011

S&P500 from 2007 - 2011

Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2007 -2011

US GDP in 2007 grew from 0.9, 3.2, 2.3, 2.9 During the same year, Dow started at 12398, reached the highs at 14093 and  low at 12114 and closed at 13365.

US GDP in 2008 grew from -0.7, 0.6, -4, -6.8. During the same year, Dow reached high at 13058, lows at 8046, and closed at 9034. 

US GDP in 2009 grew from -4.9, -0.7, 1.6, 5. During the same year, Dow reached low at 6626, high at 10428 and closed at 10428. 

US GDP in 2010 grew from 3.7, 1.7, 2.6, 3.1. During the same year, Dow reached high at 11577, lows at 9686, and closed at 11577. 

US GDP in 2011 grew from 0.4, 1.3, 1.8. During the same year, Dow reached high at 12810, lows at 10771 and at present at 12291

Even if we compare the GDP of 2010 and 2011, inspite of good GDP number Dow Jones closed  in 2010 at 11577, while 2011 had a stalled growth and its sitting 12291 which is overbought and I still think there will be atleast 1000 -2000 point pull back.

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Tomorrow there is no economic data coming out from US or Europe except short term Italian bond auction. Since Italian bond yield is sitting at 7, which is at danger level, it will be interesting to see how much interest Italian Govt. needs to pay.

Take a break till Jan 3rd, and don't loose any money till then.

If your bearish then buy, TZA, TVIX, FAZ or VXX
If your bullish then buy TNA, FAS, ERX.


I am still bearish.

Unemployment a very big worry for Europe; TVIX, TZA, FAZ

Today France unemployment rate hit the 12 year high, showing the sign of further deterioration of its economy. France and Germany are already in recession based on PMI data.

The unemployment situation in Europe is getting worse; Greece unemployment rate is at 18.3%, Spain Unemployment rate is 22.8%, Ireland unemployment rate is at 14.3%. With massive debt and high unemployment, Euro is able to survive somehow because of the greed of the wall street and its know govt is going to print free money for them. The day Wall street decide that they have enough people on the board, they will sink the economy.

Buy the right stock at the right price.

Here are the list of stocks which can be bought below the specified price. The list is made our member Vikas. I have only added the max target price (3 - 5 month) for bullish scenario  and the worst case scenario in case there is huge sell off.


1. AGQ under 46; Max it can go down to $30, Target price: $60.
2. LVS under 40; Max it can go down to $31.21, Target price: $48.
3. TNA around 38; Max it can go down to $28, Target price: $53.

Whats going up in DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P500 will come down soon...!!

The market manipulation is at full swing

The day started with weak economic data from US, Canada and Europe. France GDP came out 0.3% while expectation was 0.4%, Canada GDP came at 0% previous was 0.2% and yesterday US GDP came at 1.8% while expectation was 2% and Italian GDP came at -0.2%.  In last 4 trading day, Dow has added 560 point, S&P500 added 65 points, while Nasdaq added 100 points. Today was the weakest low volume day trading in Dow for 2011 with just 80 million share traded and it rallied up 124 point. http://www.google.com/finance/historical?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI

Another very important weak data for today was Personal income, it came 0.1% while expectation was 0.4%, while consumer spending came at 0.1% while expectation was 0.3%. In Dec 2010, consumer spending was 0.7%. 

Personal income from 2008 - 2011

The data shows people are not earning enough but they are spending everything they are earning. 

New home sales came out 1.6%, while expectation was 2.6%, which was cherished, but you might be surprise to know that 2011 is the worst year of New home sales since 1963. 

Looking at all the data which are coming out from US, and Europe clearly shows a sign of recession and heading for double dip recession. 

How can one think of being bullish in this stock market with such bad economy report ? Look at the chart and it tells the true story of US economy. Compare any US economic data of last 10 year and it will show that 2011 is worst year after 2008-2009. Even after 3 year, the growth is stalled.

Some of the trader have a glimmer of hope that in next FOMC  meeting on Jan 3rd, Fed might announce QE3 but again they might be disappointed again.

Whats going up in DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P500 will come down soon...!!

The correct level for DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq with this kind of economy data should be 10099, 1066, and 2141 respectively.

US GDP Lowered yet the market rallies up: TVIX, TZA, FAZ, ERY

Real US GDP of Last 10 year.

One more day of mixed economic data from US, but the stocks end up positive. Real US GDP came out at 1.8% while expected was 2% and Dow closed at 12169 point. Same quarter in 2010 it was at 2.9% when Dow was at 11400 point.

Second economic data was jobless claim which was expected of 380k but it came at 364k lowest since July 2008. Filing less jobless claim doesn't mean a good news but creating new job or hiring new people is a good news. Since July 2008, every week over 300k file jobless claim but there is not a single month when more then 300k job have been added in last 3 year. 

One more day of very bad news but market end up flat: TVIX, TZA, FAZ, ERY

The day started with ECB lending 489 Billion Euro (645 Billion US dollar) to 523 banks at 1% interest rate, while forecast was that bank will need 293 Billion Euros.This raises question that there are far more banks who needed money then estimated. A similar program was announced in June 2009 in which bank borrowed 442 B euros. 

Dow up by 337 point, is it for real ? Dow likely to fall 1000 point

Dow was up 337 point, S&P 500 back to 1241 level. The big news was Spain auction went out well followed by New housing start level was 685k while expected was 628k and new permit was 681 k while expected was 653k. No doubt, the number came out better then expected but it wasn't great either.

The market rallied on optimism that housing market is recovering. Now let me show you the real picture of housing starts. Look at the chart below, and its a flat line. I understand a reading of 2-3 million new houses would have been great data.  But its 685k which is normal and there is nothing to be so bullish. US housing market is already in bubble and with new housing added to the current level is going to make it worse. Making new houses isn't the problem, but selling it is bigger problem with high unemployment rate and tighter credit is only going to make thing worse.

Time to be defensive: VXX, TVIX, TZA, ERY, TYP

I know its bullish day today, but I think its time to buy VXX, TVIX, TZA, ERY, TYP or any bearish stock before tomorrow closing day.

Bank stocks are cheap but stay away till S&P downgrades France: #VXX, #GLD, #AGQ, #TZA, #TVIX

Yesterday there was global sell off even US futures were down terrible before recovering. Dow has broken the key level of 11808, and S&P500 has broken key level of 1209. Now the next key level in Dow is 11718, and S&P500 is 1200. The market is still looking clue to be bullish but the fact is European and US politician are doing their best to keep the bullish market away. Things are getting out of hand but this politician think they have plenty of time to resolve things. The market has shown some patience because Hedge fund mangaer need some year end bonus and so don't get fooled by the bullish sentiment, the Global sell away is just a step away till they get bonus.

Should you trust Wall street Analysts ?

If you have noticed most of the analysts on the news media try to forecast after the event has occurred and they come up with some vague number which is hard to believe.

Here are some of the examples;

1. When the Oil prices was rising in September, "Goldman Sach predicted Oil will reach $ 130 in 12 month."  http://www.steelguru.com/middle_east_news/Goldman_Sachs_tips_oil_to_hit_USD_130_in_12_months/225637.html

2. After Gold started rising every analysts started saying Gold is reaching $ 2500 -$ 5000 and some said even $10000 by 2012

http://www.theamericanadvisor.com/news/citigroup-analyst-sees-gold-hitting-2500-5000-an-ounce/

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2010/06/19/gold-going-to-parabolic-top-of-10000-by-2012/

3. After Euro started falling and all the analysts started saying, "Euro is hitting 1.20" http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/15/pimco-euro-to-1-20-in-three-to-six-months/

Don't get carried away by headline number: RRR, ITMN, GLD, VXX, POT

As said in my previous article, there would be small rebounce after sell off because of the option expiration date on Friday and it did happen today. Many have shorted the market and since its the last day of option expiration date, its just short covering rally so don't get carried away. At the same time there is no harm in taking advantage of this rally, but don't go all in. I am still bullish till tomorrow.

Next week we might get France downgrade which could be big event. There were lot of good headline number, like US jobless claim dropped to 366k, Philadelphia fed survey came 10.3 and good Spanish bond auction. I agree with Christine Laggard the "Europe crisis is escalating".

Hanging by the thread: Politicians needs to act now: IDCC, BPAX, GLD, IAU, FXE, TLB

As predicted Eur/Usd has dropped to 1.29 level, and Dow has fallen almost 450 points till now. The technical level to watch in Dow is 11808, 11716, on the downside while 11913, 12044 on the upside. In S&P500, watch 1209 and 1200 on downside and 1222 and 1229 on the upside. Its needs to hold the level breaking either upside or downside and then it can test the next level. 

Today, there was Global sell off in an anticipation that S&P or Moody might downgrade France. Italian 5 year bond auction made the situation worse, since it had to pay the highest interest rate in the history of Eurozone. Italy and Spain combine have to pay 550 B euro in 2012 which is more then EFSF fund which has 440 B euro.

Long term only: BBY, POT, BAC, MS, HAL, GLD, IAU, FXE

Long term investor for 2-3 month time frame. They is still risk of last minute sell of because FTSE was down 2.10% Keep this stock in your watchlist and on any weakness buy it. WYNN POT BAC MS HAL, GLD IAU FXE CF WFC FAS Sina BBY

Sorry No Santa rally this year. #AUO, #FXE, #GLD, #VXX, #BBY, #LIVE

Global Recession Ahead

As predicted on Dec 7th, that Euro is heading 1.29 and now it's at 1.30 level. With weakening Euro and strengthening US dollar, means Emerging countries are less likely to buy anything from US and with business inventories up, US doesn't have to buy new thing. Fed did the right thing by not issuing QE3. Neither QE1 or QE2 has helped and neither will QE50 will help. The issue is growth and credit market tightening. Banks are not issuing new loans to small business as banks need to maintain certain levels of liquidity as per regulatory requirement so that another Lehman brother doesn't happen. But this is slowing the global growth. The Global economy is heading downhill from here on.

BRIC not likely to help Europe: Euro to weaken further

Till now there was only news from Europe which was shaking the market but we have another member to join this party, it's China. China is the world second largest Economy and the economic data is showing big sign of weakness. Shanghai composite is now close to March 2009 lows. This week Japan already lowered its GDP forecast. India industrial production tumbled for the first time in 2 years and lowered its GDP forecast from 9% to 7%. Russia is facing political and financial crisis, the stock exchange is near 2 year lows.

Real test of Euro this week. Profit Taking in #Goog, #IBM, #CMG, #NKE, #DIA, #SPY, #ERX

Euro was able to survive last week, inspite of EU summit failure. EU leader are hoping that market will give them time till March 2012 to come up with something concrete. Based on the charts Dow is likely to fall 500-700 points soon. Shanghai composite Index is now at Feb 2009 lows at 2300. There is a last hope that China will buy Euope debt, but why will any country invest their tax payer money when there is huge risk and no guarantee of returns. Europe crisis is a long term issue and it can't be solved with another 17 EU summit. Look at MF Global, they bought the debt and now its bankrupt. With Global economy slowdown, it's even going to get worse for Europe. 

Dow likely to fall 500 -700 points. EU summit a failure but market still cheers it.

EU summit may be over but the crisis is not over. Here are the outcome of EU summit:

• A cap of 0.5% of GDP on countries' annual structural deficits
• "Automatic consequences" for countries whose public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP
• The tighter rules to be enshrined in countries' constitutions
• European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be accelerated and brought into force in July 2012

Last minute sell off was preview of tomorrow: Stocks for Dec 9th: #POT, #VXX, #FAZ, #TZA, #FLOW,

Eur/Usd now near Sept lows.

Tomorrow is the last day of EU summit. Tomorrow or Monday could be a game changer when there could be biggest sell off unless EU comes out with some plan. The day started with the hope rally that ECB will cut more the 0.50bps or more and they would buy bond aggressively. But the ECB disappointed the market by cutting the interest rate only 0.25 bps and they declined to buy bond aggressively. ECB announced that Euro zone is officially in recession and it would last till 2013 & this set the tone for the rest of the day. The stock made nice pull back in last 45 minute on the rumor about ESM will run along side EFSF from July 2012. The dow cut off from 180 point decline to 80 point. Then some unknown German official decline to accept ESM proposal. So the stock sold off from 80 point to 220 point in 10 minute.

Don't buy the rumor. Stocks for Dec 8th: #VXX, #TZA, #FAZ, #HAL, #WYNN

Tomorrow is the semi final day for the EU summit. There will huge volatility and lots of rumor like it happened today, that "G20 are planning to lend 600B Euro to IMF". Soon, IMF came out and denied this rumor. This is the 4th time same rumor came out and many got trapped by it.

Let me give you some insight about G20. It has twenty countries, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Republic of Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America. Out of this countries, France, US, China and Germany have clearly said, they are not adding up any new fund. Italy needs money, while other countries can't afford to lend any new money because US dollar is at all time high, and it would cost 30% more to the countries to lend any money.

Stocks for Dec 7th: VXX, ERY, TYP; Euro is in big trouble heading for 1.29 soon

The market is exactly behaving the same way it did before the last two EU summit. Before the summit, some unknown EU official or secret source comes out and say something to some News channel or News agency and the market changes the direction quickly.

Italy and Greece have passed their budget as they had no choice. Greece was given $2 billion Euro, out of $8 billion and rest is promised during EU summit. Without the money Greece will default. (Its not likely to happen unless EU forget it.)

It's time to buy TZA, VXX, TYP, FAZ and Puts in DIA

Market is expecting ECB will print money on Thursday and there is another rumor ESM may run EFSF as double firepower. I am not buying this rumor. I think since DJI has very big resistance at 12232, and S&P500 has big resistance at 1265, its safe to buy TZA, VXX, TYP, FAZ and Puts in DIA

#TLB is offered $3/share by sycamore partner. But their site look suspicious, not much info in their. http://www.sycamorepartners.com/  so becareful don't invest in this stock.

Stocks for Dec 6th: VXX, AIS, TEAR, DRI, PLX

Today was a confusing day for trading. US ISM non manufacturing index came at 52 and factory order of -0.4% which are really bad news, but the stock were high throughout the day on the hope that European leader are working on something. The factory orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. So a negative data means the inventories are up and less new order for next month.

Angela Merkel and Sarkozy came to an agreement on new treaty that automatic sanction will be imposed to for deficit breach of 3% below of GDP and they will be approved by March. So basically, there was no detail provided, and they want this thing to drag till March now. 

The bullish market liked it, or may be the hedge fund manager want to cash in as much as possible before the Friday meeting is over. The Italian bond market also showed great improvement it fell below 6. But the Eur/Usd never showed any kind of bullishness which the stock market is showing. 

Finally S&P interrupted the market rally by threatening to downgrade 15 EU countries; France by 2 notch and Germany by 1 notch. This means France and Germany both will loss their AAA rating, suggesting higher cost of borrowing money from the market. Both are the biggest lender in EU zone, a downgrade would be even bigger threat then now. "Euro is in very big trouble"

Right now, the media is not focusing on the parliamentary approval that all the 17 Euro country will require before they could pass any new treaty, which means it will take longer time then Merkel and Sarkozy are thinking. EFSF was a very small deal compare to treaty change. EFSF still needed approval.

There are two good thing at this time for Europe, the liquidity swap program is in place and Italian & Spain bond yield well below danger level.

As said in my previous article, a disappointment would take the market down to its low of October 2011 while a positive news can take market up to highs of July 2011. 

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Its not the time to be bullish or bearish either this week. Take a break. Start investing from next week. Headline risk still exist.

If your bearish then buy: VXX, TZA, FAZ, TYP

If your bullish then buy: TNA, FAS, TYH *** This is very risky. I am not recommending at this time.

Stocks for Dec 5th: SFSF, SAP, ERX, SVNT, IL

Its the first day of  the most important week for Euro and world economy. Italy passed their first task of austerity measure and now its Greece turn on Wednesday, followed by EU summit starting from Thursday and conclusion on Friday.

China is heading for big trouble, as pointed in my previously article. Today China PMI came at 52.5 for November down from 54 in October. Shanghai composite is down and its getting close to Oct 3rd low. http://www.google.com/finance?q=SHA:000001

China is the world's second biggest economy, while Italy is the seventh biggest economy in the world. The stock market is already feeling the heat as Italy is in big trouble as you all know. Imagine what will happen, if China joins this party.

So becareful with your investment in stocks, invest smartly and don't go all in. December and January is still the safe month for bullish stock but things can change very quickly.

I think tomorrow, the market is likely to remain flat rest of the day. The currency market is not showing any sign of enthusiasm. It will be very interesting to see how Italian bond is behaving http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND, it has started to rise again on Friday.

Few economic data is coming out tomorrow.
ISM non mfg at 10 EST, 53.9 or higher is bullish sign, while 52.9 or lower is bearish sign and 50 or lower is very bearish sign.
Factory order (10 EST) 0 or higher is bullish sign, while negative or 0 is bearish sign.

There is no need to be bearish or bullish as EU are working on something which they do every month. So, the best thing do this week is watch how the market is behaving. Invest on daily basis or wait till next week. Its not the end of Euro, but the it will be in lot of pressure.
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True picture of US economy: Is it time to be bullish at 8.6% unemployment rate ?

US Job Report:

Yesterday the stock market was up by 150 points in an anticipation that the job report would come out terrific, but it got disappointed. The employment rate came down to 8.6%, with 120k new position added for the month of November. The unemployment rate looked nice to read but the actual fact is 315k were no longer seeking job, reducing the participation rate to 64% (Lowest since 1987) and that's why unemployment rate dropped from 9% to 8.6%. The other thing to notice from the job report is that there was decline in the earning by 0.1% which more people are spending and they are earning less.

Every week jobless claim report is published on Thursday at 8.30 EST. The jobless claim on an average has been coming at 400k. So the total jobless claim for the month of November is 1.6 million whereas 120000 job were added. Another fact is since July 2008 till now, the weekly jobless claim has be coming at 400k or higher. 

Non farm payroll in Jan - Nov 2011:

Jan : 36000;       Feb: 216000;      Mar: 216000;      Apr: 24400;      May: 54000;   Jun: 18000     Jul: 116000;       Aug: 0       Sept: 103000;     Oct:: 80000;      Nov: 120000

Monthly Jobless Claim from Jan - Nov 2011:

Jan : 1.7 M;        Feb: 1.6M;         Mar: 1.6M;          Apr: 1.6M;       May: 1.6M;       Jun: 1.6M   Jul: 1.6M;     Aug: 1.6M;      Sept: 1.6M;   Oct: 1.6M   Nov: 1.59M

If you compare the data in August zero job were added while there was 1.6 M jobless claim.

This month job report showed 55k job were added in retailer and transportation. This are temporary job and will be eliminated once the holiday season is over. Anyways it is better then 0 job added during the month of August 2011.

Spain Job report: (This news didn't showed up in media; Mainstream media try to show what people want to hear, since market was rallying upside this news was ignored) 

On Dec 1st, Spain's jobless rate hit 15-year high at 21.5 percent, the highest in the eurozone, and the economy posted zero growth in the third quarter. The news was completely ignored as all the market were up.

European bank and ECB: (This news didn't showed up in media)

On Friday morning, the borrowing money by Eurozone bank from ECB reached highest level since March 2009. In March 2009, Dow was sitting at 6600 level, right now its at 12000 level. The market is not ready to lend money to most Eurozone bank. As per the data, the market is willing to lend money to only 1-2 strongest bank as compared to more then 40 largest bank which needs money. They now have to go to ECB to ask for money. Eurozone banks are now borrowing money from ECB at 2% while from marketplace they were previously getting it at 0.75% This was the main reason Eur/Usd started falling and people started taking profit from this market.

Next week is very important for Europe and world economy.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2011/12/very-important-week-for-euro-bank.html

Its time to be cautiously optimistic. Remember this market is not safe for long term investor. The greedy wall street may pull the trigger anytime and you may get stuck in the stocks for long time.

"Sell on rally and buy on dips" and you could easily make lot of money. Be in the right stock at the right time.

Very important week for Euro: Bank stocks have rallied as predicted

First of all a special thanks to Chinni for contributing toward the running cost of this site. Thank you for being an important member of this site. I wish your business continued growth and prosperity in the months and years ahead.

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Once again as predicted in the Nov 29th article; Bank stocks at 52 week low are all up between 7 to 19% http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2011/11/stocks-for-nov-30th-erx-tna-gld-glw-bac.html

BAC @ 5.08      Now at 5.64  up by 11 %
MS @ 13.31      Now at 15.52 up by 17 %
GS @ 88.70       Now at 97.25 up by 10 %
JPM @ 28.56    Now at  32.33 up by 13 %
BCS @10.52     Now at  11.86 up by 13 %
WFC @ 24.08  Now at  26.07 up by 10 %
DB @ 35.54     Now at  40 up by 13  %
FAS @ 52.71 (Safest out of all)     Now at  62.78 up by 19 %
LYG @ 1.42     Now at  1.52 up by 7 %
IRE @ 4.53       Now at  4.83 up by 7 %
STT @ 36.69 (Only stock not downgraded by S&P rating today)    Now at  39.98 up by 9 %

All this stocks were even higher by 3-9% before close of today's market.

Next week is very important for the Global stock market. Except China all the countries participated in huge rally.

On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss about  EFSF plan and the way European institution can intervene in national budget. (I think smaller countries might not agree with it. They will need another 15 countries to agree on the intervention program, Stock market will like it but common people might come on the street)
Italian PM Monti is submitting economic plan to the parliament on Monday.

Bank of Canada will announce about interest rates on Tuesday.

***Wednesday Greece parliament needs to budget cut to avoid default.
** Thrusday Bank of England and ECB will decide on rate cut.  EU summit begins in Brussel
* Friday Conclusion of EU summit.

Next meeting is in March 2012. Market may not give Europe that much time and that's why US treasury secretary is in Europe.

You can check live coverage of Eu summit  @ http://europa.eu/eucalendar/event/id/274060-european-council/mode/window

During last EU summit market had low expectation and it was at the bottom, so it rallied up 1500 point. This time market is up on high expectation and it has already rallied up by 1000 points.
A disappointment would take the market down to its low of October 2011 while a positive news can take market up to highs of July 2011. 

Keep cash in hand to take advantage of any rally upside or downside.

Stocks for Dec 2nd: TXI, VXX, XLB, YANG, MITL; China emerging as new problem

Today was just a flat day, after 490 points rally, which is a good sign for bullish stock. Also Italian bond yield is back to 6.65 (Safe zone) and Eur/Usd is holding at 1.346

Now Dec 9th is very critical. It could be the make or break day for Euro. I am not hopeful from the EU summit. They meet every month and deliver only speech and do nothing. The 5 central bank has given some lifeline to Europe, but it doesn't mean all the problem is solved.  I think its better to take some break and wait for the right direction before making new investment.

Tomorrow Job report is very critical coming out at 8.30 EST
Non farm payroll  131k or higher is bullish sign while lower would be bearish sign. **** very imp
Unemployment rate 9.0% or lower is bullish sign while 9.1% will be bearish sign.
Avg. Workweek 34.3 hrs would be bullish sign  while lower will be bearish sign.
Private payroll 150k or higher is very bullish sign while lower is bearish sign.  *** imp

I think China could be next big problem for the market and combination with Europe problem, it could be disastrous. I know its frustrating to see so many problems with so many countries, but its a Global problem now.


US data came out strong this month because of the holiday season. US problem will emerge starting Feb when the layoff will starts after the holiday season is over and sales will go down. Till then focus only on Europe and China.

I think since China will have some problem, material sector will be under pressure especially copper, steel and coal.

Also you can check YANG (China bear ETF) and buy some puts in XLB
Stocks likely to open high are MITL, BMTI, TXI
Stocks likely to open lower are VIAB,  ANGI, EEP