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Thursday, December 22, 2011

US GDP Lowered yet the market rallies up: TVIX, TZA, FAZ, ERY

Real US GDP of Last 10 year.
One more day of mixed economic data from US, but the stocks end up positive. Real US GDP came out at 1.8% while expected was 2% and Dow closed at 12169 point. Same quarter in 2010 it was at 2.9% when Dow was at 11400 point.

Second economic data was jobless claim which was expected of 380k but it came at 364k lowest since July 2008. Filing less jobless claim doesn't mean a good news but creating new job or hiring new people is a good news. Since July 2008, every week over 300k file jobless claim but there is not a single month when more then 300k job have been added in last 3 year. 

Yet its considered good news. An individual investor will get frustrated by seeing the stock rallying upward inspite of bad news. How can one be bullish if the economic news coming out are bad ?


Tomorrow, very important economic data is coming out. 
From Europe :
France GDP (1.30 EST): 0.4% is expected, higher is bullish, lower will be bearish, and 0 or negative will be very bearish.

French PPI: 0% is expected, higher is bullish for Gold, lower is bearish for Gold

Spainish PPI(y/y): 6.2% is expected

UK BBA mortage approval (4.30 EST): 36.3k is expected
Italian consumer confidence (5 EST) : 95.5 is expected, higher is positive for Eur/Usd, lower will be bearish for Eur/Usd.

From US:
Core durable goods order: 0.5% expected.

Personal spending: 0.3% is expected.

Core PCE price index: 0.1% higher is bullish for Gold, lower is bearish.

Personal Income (M/M): 0.3%  higher is bullish, lower is bearish

New home sale: 313k is expected.

Canada GDP: 0.1% is expected.

The extension of 2 month payroll tax will have some effect. The market is still run by manipulator, and I am still bearish.

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