Top alert for 2014: MYGN (50%), LIVE (45%), CTIC (115%), KOOL (88%), PZG (32%), GOLD (6%), IOC (6%), RSOL(18%), PLUG (70%), IMMU (26%)

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Bull and Bear Case for Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation (TKMR)

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing ribonucleic acid (RNA) interference (RNAi) therapeutics and providing its lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology to pharmaceutical partners.  In the field of RNAi therapeutics, the Company has licensed its LNP delivery technology to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Merck & Co., Inc. 

Bear Case:
Recently FDA has changed its clinical hold on TKM-Ebola to a partial hold. This is indeed a good development but does not justify the stock valuation. The reason is that even if the drug is successful years from now, it may amount to only minuscule ongoing sales and a one-time large sale. History shows us that Ebola outbreaks tend to subside, and even at the peak, do not spread to more than a few thousand people.There is simply not a big enough ongoing market for an Ebola drug. The one-time sale may be due to government agencies stockpiling drugs. Such government stockpiling may be split among drugs from several vendors. 

TKMR Financial Statement
Tekmira’s net loss for Q2 2014 was $6.1 million, as compared to a net loss of $18 million for Q1 2014. Q2 2014 revenue was $1.8 million, as compared to $4.4 million in Q1 2014. In Q2 2014 has cash equivalents, and investments of $129.5 million, as compared to $134.4 million at the end of Q1 2014, so net cash burn in the quarter of $4.9 million.

Bull Case:
Don't fight the trend and good pipeline
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Support level for TKMR
TKMR Support level, I am Short @21.60

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