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Monday, November 5, 2012

Pharmacyclics (PCYC) is not worth $51.30 with no FDA approved drug in the market. PT of $10

Pharmacyclics Inc. (Nasdaq: PCYC) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing innovative small-molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer and immune mediated diseases. Below is the chart that shows its product pipeline. 
                                     Pharmacyclics Pipeline
As seen from the product pipeline chart, PCYC has no product in Phase 3 and it takes approximately 1.5 year to get FDA approval and sales and marketing of any product to generate any revenue.  Revenue for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2012 was $102.7 million, compared to $37,000 for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2011, an increase of approximately $102.7 million. Revenue for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2012 consisted primarily of $100 million of license and milestone revenue due to the Company's achievement of two clinical milestones in connection with the Company's collaboration and license agreement (the "Agreement") with Janssen Biotech, Inc. ("Janssen").

To date, $150M in milestones have been earned and Pharmacyclics may receive up to an additional $675 million in development and regulatory milestone payments; for total potential upfront and milestone payments of $975 million.

Following regulatory approval, both Pharmacyclics and Janssen will book revenue and co-commercialize ibrutinib. In the US, Pharmacyclics will book sales and take the lead role in US commercial strategy development. Both Pharmacyclics and Janssen will share in commercialization activities. Outside the United States, Janssen will book sales and lead and perform commercialization activities. Profits and losses from the commercialization activities will be split 50/50 on a worldwide basis. Development and commercialization activities under the collaboration will be managed through a shared governance structure. Each company will lead development for specific indications as stipulated in a global development plan, with development costs shared on a 40/60 basis (Pharmacyclics 40% and Janssen 60%).
PCYC should be less then $10 ideally with no FDA approved drug
Based on the chart, PCYC has moved moved up 246% in 2012, 90% in last 6 month and 2403% in 5 year. 
In Nov 2009, it was $1.85 A pharma company without FDA approval of any product is worth less then $10 in reality.

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