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Monday, September 3, 2012

Since October 2011, S&P500 up 24% more then combined effect of QE2 and operation twist.

Easing BS continues on the market
Wasting Tax payer money. 
Everyday more then ten economic data publishes globally. Most of the data is showing global slow down but stock market keep rising on the hope of easing. Since October 3rd 2011 to August 31st 2012, S&P500 has made a gain of 275 point (24.32%) more then combined effect of QE2 and operation twist which was 23%. During QE1, S&P500 made 39% gain but it was recovering from the financial crash. Whether its QE3 or LTRO3, at this time everything looked priced in and market is too much up for any kind of easing and even if easing happens, it takes 3-6 month of showing any effect by that time Ben Bernanke would be out if Mitt Romney wins the election.

Trading Strategy for September 4th:

Based on the chart stock market is still expected to open lower. But tomorrow ECB is again carrying fine tuning operation, which has caused maximum higher open and rally in this market, so becareful and don't take big position as short.

For bullish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13157, and S&P500 needs to break 1408.

For bearish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13055, and S&P500 needs to break 1400.53.

Percentage Gainers
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
Navios Maritime AcquisitionNNA5,000$2.830.14 5.20$2.92$2.80
KEYW HoldingKEYW7,39311.500.24 2.1311.5011.14
Thompson Creek MetalsTC27,7122.880.06 2.132.902.82
Renren Cl A ADSRENN10,0003.890.06 1.573.893.83
Activision BlizzardATVI244,90511.920.16 1.3611.9211.66
Percentage Decliners
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
MannKindMNKD147,375$2.38-0.32-11.85 $2.71$2.30
Aurizon MinesAZK10,8953.93-0.15-3.68 4.073.93
Augusta ResourceAZC8,1872.72-0.08-2.84 2.722.72
International Tower Hill MinesTHM27,0052.92-0.08-2.59 2.942.92
Alon USA EnergyALJ11,98213.33-0.35-2.56 13.7113.33

Economic Calendar

SessionTimeCurrencyEventImpactActualForecastPrev.
  0:30AUDRBA - Overnight Ratehigh 3.53.5
  0:30AUDRBA Monetary Policy Meetinglow   
  1:45CHFGDPhigh 0.20.7
  1:45CHFGDPhigh 1.62
  3:00GBPHalifax House Price Index (4th-7th)low -0.8-0.6
  3:00GBPHalifax House Price Index (4th-7th)low 0.2-0.6
   4:30GBPCIPS Construction PMImed 5050.9
   5:00EURPPImed 0.2-0.5
   5:00EURPPImed 1.61.8
   6:30EUREU's Van Rompuy meets Germany Chancellor Merkellow   
   7:00EURItalian PM Monti meets French President Hollandelow   
  8:58USDManufacturing PMIlow 51.951.9
  10:00USDConstruction Spendinglow 0.40.4
  10:00USDISM Manufacturinghigh 5049.8
   17:00USDVehicle Saleslow 14.214.05
   17:00NZDPM speaks on Chinese Relationshipmed   
  19:01GBPBRC Shop Price indexlow  1
  19:30AUDAIG Services PMIlow  46.5
  20:00CHFSNB's Danthine gives speech at 30th SUERF Colloquium - States, Banks and the Financing of the Economylow   
  21:30AUDGDPhigh 0.81.3
  21:30AUDGDPhigh 3.74.3
  21:30JPYBoJ's Miyao Speech and Press Conferencelow