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Thursday, August 16, 2012

Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500 and Russell 2000 at multi year high and VIX at multi year low.


After disappointing Philadelphia Fed Survey and rising jobless claim, one would have assumed that this market will finally sell off. But from the lows of the day, Dow rallied 125 point, S&P500 rallied 13 point, Nasdaq rallied 34 point. while Volatility index VIX was down from 15.15 to 14.28 (6%). It was one of the strange day, when all the index were positive along with Gold, Silver, Cooper, VIX, and Dollar index. 

As I said in my previous articles, market cannot crash as the shorts are at multi year high and Euro and VIX at multi year low. This market will keep moving sideways till election is over.  After two days rally in VIX, once again it showed the effect of contango and it sold off. Just remember 2% gain is better then 5% loss, so sell as soon as you make profit.
dow closing in bearish zone
Dow closing in bearish zone but look at the volume spike at the close
Dow is up 2594 point (24.35%) since October 3rd, 2011 and 6624 (99.94%) up since March 09.
Dow is up 6624 point up (99.94%) since March 09.
Dow is up 24.35% since October 3rd, 2011.

Tracking back the performance:

Index 1 Month Since June 4 1 year 5 Year
Dow Jones 522 (4%) 1131 (9.34%) 1844 (16%) 10 (0.08%)
S&P500 101. (8%) 137 (11%) 222 (19%) -38.13(2.62%)
Nasdaq 165(6%) 314 (12%) 538.94 (22%) 517.5 (21%)
Russell 2000 16.42 (2%) 75.66(11%) 108(15.37%) 56.66(7.5%)

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance if the rally continues
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012 
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012 
1410.03, high of 8/14/2012 


Economic Calendar
TIME (ET)REPORTPERIODACTUALFORECASTPREVIOUS

9:55 amUMich consumer sentiment indexAug.71.872.3
10 amLeading indicatorsJuly0.3%-0.3%

After hour gainers and losers
Percentage Gainers
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
Oplink CommunicationsOPLK6,935$14.980.72 5.05$15.00$14.02
Myriad GeneticsMYGN28,50024.970.77 3.1924.9924.20
Foot LockerFL61,03635.551.06 3.0736.0034.30
Onyx PharmaceuticalsONXX8,28270.632.08 3.0370.6866.91
Paramount Gold&SilverPZG55,1932.420.07 2.982.422.34
Percentage Decliners
IssueSymbolVolumeLastChg% ChgHighLow
Marvell Technology GroupMRVL2,107,619$11.10-1.18-9.61 $12.60$11.10
AeropostaleARO1,182,30912.58-1.08-7.91 13.7012.40
Life Partners HoldingsLPHI6,7002.22-0.16-6.72 2.262.22
America's Car-MartCRMT5,37945.60-3.00-6.17 49.0245.19
ScansourceSCSC5,52128.40-1.40-4.70 29.8026.80
MolycorpMCP452,40110.64-0.52-4.66 11.3610.62
Wausau PaperWPP8,9158.35-0.36-4.13 8.758.35

Premarket Earning:
ANN, CMRG, IMOS, FL, HIBB, ISS, SJM, KCLI, KIRK, GASS.

Trading Strategies for August 17th:
UVXY: Buy if 5.42 breaks and sell if 5.28 breaks
TVIX: Buy if 2.66 breaks, and sell if 2.58 breaks.
AAPL: Buy if 637 breaks and sell if 634.69 breaks
GOOG: Buy if 673.79 breaks and sell if 671.13 breaks.
TZA: Buy if 16.71 and sell if 16.56