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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Market looking forward to ECB for LTRO3

As expected market opened higher, and managed to rally after failing to rally last 3 time inspite of Tuesday's ECB money printing operation. In last 6 month, 90% of the time, stock market have opened high on Tuesday whenever ECB carries out any operation. This week is very important as Thursday US GDP is coming out followed by non farm payroll on Friday. Ireland will be first country to hold austerity referendum on Thursday and result will be counted on Friday.

After hour ECB rejected Bankia proposal for recapitalization. Bankia is the fourth larget bank of Spain and it's about to get bankrupt like it happened with WaMu in 2008. Spain is 12th, and Greece is 35th largest economy of the world. So, imagine the impact of Spain deteriorating economy, when Greece being small economy has caused enough damage. Spain 10 year bond yield is above 6.44% which is above danger level of 6. The impact of 2 LTRO of 1 trillion Euro is completely washed away and now market is looking for third LTRO. Tomorrow, ECB's Mario Draghi is speaking at 11.30 EST and market would look for 3rd LTRO. There could be sell off if there is no talk of LTRO3.

Based on the chart, market is expected to open higher as it closed in the bullish zone, but based on Bankia news market could open sharply lower.

For Upside Dow needs to break 12632, and for Downside it needs to break 12553. It is still in consolidation zone and we should see some pullback at tomorrow close.

For upside S&P500 needs to break 1335, while for downside 1328. 

MBA Purchase Applications 
7:00 AM ET

Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET

Redbook 8:55 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET 0.5% expected, prev month 4%

William Dudley Speaks 1:00 PM ET New york Fed

Richard Fisher Speaks 1:20 PM ET Dallas Fed

Earnings before market open:  BAH, CRVL, DAKT, TFM, HSOL, GU, ITRN, MAGS, ROLL, TEA, REX, YGE

Earning after market close:  CWTR, ENS, LGF, NCS, OSN, QADB, TAOM, TIVO

After hours big gainerOSIR, FORM, CPRT, AMRN, ENS

After hours big loserPWRD, RIMM, ALKS, VTSS, DRYS, KRO, DLPH

Keep a close watch on Euro. Any recovery in Euro would take this market higher.

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