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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Greece heading for referendum, it won't exit euro but Austerity will be No.

Today futures were up 70 point, as ECB were printing money and after Germany GDP showed 0.5% growth instead of 0.1% expectation, Dow futures added another 30 points to it and S&P500 futures were up by 12 point. Greece was able to make full payment of 450 million which kept the rally on but the main issue was meeting called by Greece President to avoid election. But the meeting failed which led to sell off of Euro and the equities. Dow and S&P500 lost all its futures gain. US dollar index rose for 12th straight session and closed at 81.29 which led to sell off  of equity and precious metal like Gold, Silver. This is second week in a row, that ECB printed money on Tuesday but market didn't end up in positive territory.

Dow and S&P500 closed in bearish zone but both are at a breakpoint and tomorrow market is expected to open higher. 

For Upside S&P500 needs to break 1338 level, while for downside S&P500 needs to break 1324 level. For 2008 crash like scenario S&P500 needs to break 1275 level.

dow chart
For upside Dow needs to break 12677 level, while for downside Dow needs to break 12585 level. For 2008 crash like scenario dow needs to break 12200 level.

MBA Purchase Applications:  (7:00 AM ET)

Housing Starts: 0.690 M is expected prev month 0.654 M, Higher is bullish sign, lower is bearish sign. 8:30 AM ET

Industrial Production:  0.5% is expected prev month was 0, higher is bullish sign, lower is bearish sign. 9:15 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report : Built up in inventory is bearish sign, decline in inventory is bullish sign. 10:30 AM ET

James Bullard Speaks 12:30 PM ET

FOMC Minutes: Any talk of QE3 will lead to stock market rally, no talk of QE3 could lead to sell off 2:00 PM ET
Earnings before market open:  ANF, ABMD, CHS, DE, EDAP,SPLS, TGT, TSTF, UTSI, VVTV

Earning after market close:  EGHT, CPWM, DHT, DRYS, JACK, HOTT, NTES, WSTL, VSAT, SSW

After hours big gainerOSUR, COGO, SINA, VRML, OIBR, GM, IRE

After hours big loser:  CLNT, GCOM, GLPW, TRNS, PMFG, JCP, WPC

For Long Term: Keep PCX, NOK, RVBD, AAPL, PCLN, POT, MT, F in your watchlist.

For day trading watchout BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, MA, V, FAS, FAZ, TZA, TNA, TVIX, XIV, SVXY, UVXY, VXX, SPY, DIA, GLD, AGQ, INFY (remember volatility is not a long term investment option use it for strictly day trading) VIX is still in contango so any rally in it would lead to sell off at close. So becareful with UVXY, TVIX, VXX.

Watch out for US dollar index, if its above 81 its not safe to invest money in stocks. Be on the sideline.
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