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Monday, April 30, 2012

Eight Eurozone Countries in Recession

The day started with Spain GDP falling into recession and with 24% unemployment its likely to default by next year. But whether this default will cause any big sell off is not known. Greece defaulted but market manipulator and ECB made sure market rallied on this news. Currently, there are eight Eurozone countries such as Belgium, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Greece and Slovenia  in recession, and along with UK which is feared of double dip recession. All this have not caused any sell off till now. We use to see 200-300 point drop last year. But this year we haven't seen a convincingly 50 point drop. Everytime market sell off, it recovers back its loses in the manipulated time between 1.30 and 2.30 pm which happened even today. Stocks are back into bullish zone for tomorrow. Since ECB is printing money, it will provide cushion for any negative news or the stock would rally tomorrow.

The first level to check in Dow for upside is 13240 followed by 13297 which is important break point for the upside. While for the downside, Dow needs to break 13136 followed by 13046.

The first level to check for tomorrow in S&P500 for upside is 1405 followed by 1410 which is important break point for the upside. While for the downside, S&P500 needs to break 1386 followed by 1382. 

Use technical indicator 20 (simple moving average) sma and 50 sma to better visualise uptrend or downtrend of this manipulated market. If 20 sma crosses 50 sma and 20 sma is up, then the stocks will go higher, if 50 sma crosses 20 sma and if 50 sma is up, then stocks will go lower. In the chart red circle is bearish sign, blue circle is bullish sign. Green line is represented by SMA(50) and red line is SMA(20), while blue line actual stock value.
Dow started with bearish day with SMA(20) below SMA(50) marked as red circle which is bearish sign, while the manipulated rally which begins between 1.30 pm and 2.30pm once again brought Dow to bullish zone by close. Tomorrow Dow is expected to open higher.

Red circle is bearish sign, while blue circle is bullish sign, 1 month dow chart is still bullish

S&P500 started with bearish sentiment as SMA(20) was below SMA(50), but at the close S&P500 is back to bullish zone. S&P500 is expected to open higher tomorrow.

1 month chart of S&P500 is still bullish.
Again economic calendar doesn't matter. Bad data will bring speculation for QE3 by CNBS and good data will be excuse for rally or sell off which nobody knows.


Motor Vehicle Sales

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET

Redbook 8:55 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index (53 is expected, prev month was 53.4 ideally stock should sell off if it don't beat expectation, and if it meet expectation  stocks should rally) 10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending ( 0.5% is expected, prev month was -1.1%, ideally stock should sell off if it don't beat expectation, and if it meet expectation  stocks should rally) 10:00 AM ET


Earnings before market open: ABH, AGCO, AEGR, ACI, BP, CMI, DPZ, EMR, ENDP, TREE, ODP, PFE, 

Earnings after hours: ACUR, AMAG, BIO, BMR, CARB, CBT, BRCM, CHK, GSX, KFRC, MMI, WWWW, WBMD, AUY

For Long term keep SNDK, PCX, RVBD, INFY, NOK in your watchlist.

For day trading watchout BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, MA, FAS, FAZ, TZA, TNA, TVIX, XIV, SVXY, UVXY (remember volatility is not a long term investment option use it for strictly day trading).

Its frustrating to see market rally on bad news but this is new reality. Avoid this market or follow this market.

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