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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Will the manipulator win the game one more time ? GLD, AGQ, FSLR, TZA, VXX

Lately I haven't been getting time to follow this market. This manipulated stock market kept rallying up with all the negative headlines and when it looked there is no catalyst left for sell off, Greece debt worries becomes headline for sell off 200 point in Dow and 20 points drop in S&P500. Neither the previous rally nor today's sell off make any sense to me. I still think this market is overpriced and overbought and the right value for Dow should be below 12k, or to be precise 10613 and below 1200 or to be precise 1012 based on the global economic outlook and economic data.

consumer credit
As said in my previous post 12907, 12889 and 12780 are very important key level in dow and 1352, 1340 and 1332 in S&P500. Today all the important level was broken except S&P500 1332 level.  Now the manipulators would like to bring this market up to 12832 level in dow and 1350 level in S&P500.

If the manipulators are gone and the market comes to reality dow should easily break 12677 key resistance followed by 12422 and 1325 and 1312 in S&P500. 

Today is the first day of the important week which will move this market based on the economic data. 

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET

ADP Employment Report  (203k is expected higher is bullish, below 170k is bearish)
8:15 AM ET

Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET

Released On 3/7/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q4:11
PriorConsensusConsensus Range
Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR0.7 %0.9 %0.7 % to 1.5 %
Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR1.2 %1.2 %1.0 % to 2.8 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report   Positive inventory is bearish sign, which negative inventory is bullish sign
10:30 AM ET

Consumer Credit   10 B is expected, higher is bearish data while lower is bullish data.
3:00 PM ET

I still think this manipulation is not over yet and this market will need to wait till March 20th or atleast this Friday to come to reality. Look for the beaten stock or play with individual stock rather then whole sector to maximise your profit. 
The stocks I am watching are GLd, AGQ, and FSLR

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