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Sunday, January 22, 2012

How high can S&P500 can go in next two week ?

S&P500 6 month chart
So far S&P500 has been muddling through a very light volume trade maintaining very tight channel. S&P500 is already in over bought zone. It's setting up a mouse trap zone for bull as well as bear. If S&P500 keep moving this way with low volume, maximum it can reach 1347 by Feb 3rd, which will lead to automatic sell trigger signal no matter how volume we get. I'll list out the points where S&P500 will trigger a decline of further 5%  if it hits following level on this date.
Jan 23rd: 1294
Jan 24th:  1298
Jan 25th: 1302
Jan 26th: 1308
Jan 27th: 1310
Jan 30th: 1312
Jan 31st: 1316
Feb 1st: 1319
Feb 2nd: 1323
Feb 3rd: 1327
Feb 6th: 1331

Economic Calendar to focus this week:
GMT -5:00, DST Off
Sunday, January 22
19:30AUDPPI (QoQ)0.4%0.6%
Monday, January 23
08:30CADLeading Indicators (MoM)0.6%0.8%
22:00JPYInterest Rate Decision0.10%0.10%
Tuesday, January 24
02:00JPYBoJ Press Conference
03:00EURFrench Manufacturing PMIP49.348.9
03:30EURGerman Manufacturing PMIP49.148.4
04:00EURManufacturing PMIP47.446.9
05:00EURIndustrial New Orders (MoM)-2.2%1.8%
08:30CADCore Retail Sales (MoM)0.2%0.7%
08:30CADRetail Sales (MoM)0.3%1.0%
15:00GBPBoE Gov King Speaks
18:50JPYTrade Balance0.36T0.54T
19:30AUDCPI (QoQ)0.2%0.6%
19:30AUDTrimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)0.6%0.3%
Wednesday, January 25
00:00JPYBoJ Monthly Report
03:00CADBoC Gov Carney Speaks
04:00EURGerman Ifo Business Climate Index107.5107.2
04:00EURGerman Current Assessment116.8116.7
04:00EURGerman Business Expectations99.098.4
04:30GBPBBA Mortgage Approvals35.3K34.7K
04:30GBPGDP (QoQ)P-0.1%0.6%
04:30GBPMPC Meeting Minutes
06:00GBPCBI Industrial Trends Orders-19-23
08:15EURECB President Draghi Speaks
10:00USDPending Home Sales (MoM)-0.5%7.3%
14:15USDInterest Rate Decision0.25%0.25%
14:15USDFOMC Statement
15:00NZDInterest Rate Decision2.50%2.50%
15:00NZDRBNZ Rate Statement
Thursday, January 26
HolidayAustralia - Australia Day
02:00EURGfK German Consumer Climate5.65.6
06:00GBPCBI Distributive Trades Survey19
08:30USDCore Durable Goods Orders (MoM)0.9%0.3%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders (MoM)2.0%3.7%R
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims370K352K
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims3432K
10:00USDNew Home Sales320K315K
16:45NZDTrade Balance-50M-308M
18:30JPYTokyo Core CPI (YoY)-0.3%-0.3%
18:50JPYMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes
18:50JPYRetail Sales (YoY)2.0%-2.2%R
Friday, January 27
05:30CHFKOF Leading Indicators-0.060.01
08:30USDGDP Price Index (QoQ)P2.0%2.6%
08:30USDGDP (QoQ)P3.0%1.8%
09:55USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index74.274.0

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