Based on the current economy conditions, a major crash is expected between Oct 22nd to Nov 22nd, 2011 unless there is a big change in the fiscal policy. I am shocked to see that the lows of DJI and S&P500 in 2011 are at the same level as it was in 2008. If the stock crashes, I believe the DJI will go as low as 8095, S&P 500 at 760 and Nasdaq at 1654 points. This number was calculated based on the historical data low's data for each indexes.
Below are the historical lows for Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2001 - 2011.
2001: Sep 21 8235
2002: Oct 04 7528
2003: Mar 03 7740
2004: Oct 22 9757
2005: Oct 21 10215 (This was the second highest low after Apr 10087)
2006: Jan 20 10667
2007: Mar 16 12110
2008: Mar 07 11893 Jul 11 11100 Oct 24 8378 Nov 21 8046
2009: Mar 06 6626
2010: Jul 02 9686
2011: Mar 18 11858 Aug 19 10817
As you can see, in Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, DJI was at 11893 and 11100 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 11858 and 10817 respectively. There is not much of difference between the two data. In 2008, DJI lost 793 points between the lows of Mar and Jul 2008, while in 2011, DJI lost 1041 points between lows of Mar and Aug 2011. If the stock market crashes DJI can go as low as 8095 somewhere below then Oct 24th 2008.
The historical lows for S&P 500 from 2001- 2011 are as follow:
2001: Sep 21 965
2002: Oct 04 800
2003: Mar 03 828
2004: Aug 06 1063 Oct 22 1095
2005: Apr 15 1142 Oct 21 1186
2006: Jan 20 1261 Jul 14 1236
2007: Mar 16 1387
2008: Mar 07 1293 Jul 11 1239 Oct 24 876 Nov 21 800
2009: Mar 06 683
2010: Jul 02 1022
2011: Mar 18 1279 Aug 19 1123
In Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, the S&P 500 was at 1293
and 1239 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 1279 and
1123 respectively. S&P 500 lost 54 points in 2008 from the lows of Mar and Aug, while in 2011, it has lost 156 points from the lows of Mar and Aug. If there is a crash S&P 500 would go below 760 far below Oct 24th, 2008.
Here are the historical data lows for Nasdaq.
2001: Sep 21 1423
2002: Oct 04 1139
2003: Mar 03 1305
2004: Aug 06 1757 Oct 22 1995
2005: Apr 15 1908 Oct 21 2064
2006: Jul 21 2020
2007: Mar 02 2368
2008: Mar 07 2212 Jul 11 2239 Oct 24 1552 Nov 21 1384
2009: Mar 06 1293
2010: Jul 02 2091
2011: Mar 18 2643 Aug 19 2341
In Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, the Nasdaq was at 2212 and 2239 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 2643 and 2341 respectively. Nasdaq was higher by 27 point in from the lows of 2008 while in 2011, its lower by 302 points from the lows of Mar and Aug. If the stock crashes it may go as low as 1654 little higher then Oct 24th, 2008.
Another comparison is the weekly initial claim the level for weekly claim is same as 2008 and 2011.
The real GDP in 2011 is lower then 2008 during this 2nd quarter.
The condition is similar to 2008. This time it's much worse since Europe and USA are heading for recession with USA losing AAA rating and there are possibility that Greece will default. Based on the data I think DJI, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are heading for big crash soon.
Below are the historical lows for Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2001 - 2011.
2001: Sep 21 8235
2002: Oct 04 7528
2003: Mar 03 7740
2004: Oct 22 9757
2005: Oct 21 10215 (This was the second highest low after Apr 10087)
2006: Jan 20 10667
2007: Mar 16 12110
2008: Mar 07 11893 Jul 11 11100 Oct 24 8378 Nov 21 8046
2009: Mar 06 6626
2010: Jul 02 9686
2011: Mar 18 11858 Aug 19 10817
As you can see, in Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, DJI was at 11893 and 11100 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 11858 and 10817 respectively. There is not much of difference between the two data. In 2008, DJI lost 793 points between the lows of Mar and Jul 2008, while in 2011, DJI lost 1041 points between lows of Mar and Aug 2011. If the stock market crashes DJI can go as low as 8095 somewhere below then Oct 24th 2008.
The historical lows for S&P 500 from 2001- 2011 are as follow:
2001: Sep 21 965
2002: Oct 04 800
2003: Mar 03 828
2004: Aug 06 1063 Oct 22 1095
2005: Apr 15 1142 Oct 21 1186
2006: Jan 20 1261 Jul 14 1236
2007: Mar 16 1387
2008: Mar 07 1293 Jul 11 1239 Oct 24 876 Nov 21 800
2009: Mar 06 683
2010: Jul 02 1022
2011: Mar 18 1279 Aug 19 1123
Here are the historical data lows for Nasdaq.
2001: Sep 21 1423
2002: Oct 04 1139
2003: Mar 03 1305
2004: Aug 06 1757 Oct 22 1995
2005: Apr 15 1908 Oct 21 2064
2006: Jul 21 2020
2007: Mar 02 2368
2008: Mar 07 2212 Jul 11 2239 Oct 24 1552 Nov 21 1384
2009: Mar 06 1293
2010: Jul 02 2091
2011: Mar 18 2643 Aug 19 2341
In Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, the Nasdaq was at 2212 and 2239 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 2643 and 2341 respectively. Nasdaq was higher by 27 point in from the lows of 2008 while in 2011, its lower by 302 points from the lows of Mar and Aug. If the stock crashes it may go as low as 1654 little higher then Oct 24th, 2008.
Another comparison is the weekly initial claim the level for weekly claim is same as 2008 and 2011.
The real GDP in 2011 is lower then 2008 during this 2nd quarter.
The condition is similar to 2008. This time it's much worse since Europe and USA are heading for recession with USA losing AAA rating and there are possibility that Greece will default. Based on the data I think DJI, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are heading for big crash soon.
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